Saturday, October 10, 2015
(Monty Hall) In a game u r offered 3 doors, 2 empty, 1 with $100K behind. U chose Door 3 and Host open door 2 showing empty. Should you switch to Door 1?
Answer
P(B1|H2) =P(B1^H2)/P(h2)=P(H2|B1)*P(B1)/P(H2)=1*0.3333/0.5=2/3 >1/3 (H=Host Open i b=behind i)
P(H2) = Partition Sum =P(H2|B1)*P(B1)+P(H2|B2)*P(B2)+P(H2|B3)*P(B3)
Host knows not to open Door 1 so P(H2|B1)=1, P(H2|B2)=0
Host knows safe to open either door 1 or 3 so P(H2|B3)=1/2 to be fair.
So P(H2)=1*1/3 +0*1/3 + 1/2*1/3=1/2
Some basics:
P(AUB) +P(A^B)=P(A)+P(B)
P(A|B) = P(A^B)/P(B) by definition
P(A) = Sum of P(A|pi)*P(pi) where {Pi} is a partition.
Thursday, October 8, 2015
A car is going fast on a road. There is a man in the middle of the road. Due to a major blackout, all the lights in the street are not working. The car battery has a problem so its lights don't work either. There are no emergency battery-powered lights etc... However, the car avoids the man in the middle of the road. How/Why?
What is CAPM?
Answer
Capital Market Pricing Model This is market discount rate reflecting beta risk, TSLA has more beta than GM
Sunday, October 4, 2015
What is DCF ? How it compares to LBO?
Answer
DCF=Discount Cash Flow valuation Model. Discount = Z(0,T) zero coupon bond pricing= (1+i)^(-T) so it discounted from future back to today. Cash Flow = either dividend on a stock or Future Cash flow projection on Cash Flow Statement. So we can value both Market Instrument and A business, which have different i= r (exp return) or =WACC LBO is financier model, buy and sell not running buz, so use Multiples
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